Calculation of the Variance in Surveys of the Economic Climate

XREAP Working Paper No. 2006-06

22 Pages Posted: 20 Jun 2011

See all articles by Manuela Alcañiz

Manuela Alcañiz

University of Barcelona

Alex Costa

Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya

Carme Luna

Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya

Cristina Rovira

Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya

Montserrat Guillen

Date Written: November 1, 2006

Abstract

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases, the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. This data allows for the ability to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data is often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Keywords: Economic climate, variances, sampling methods

JEL Classification: E32, R10

Suggested Citation

Alcañiz, Manuela and Costa, Alex and Luna, Carme and Rovira, Cristina and Guillen, Montserrat, Calculation of the Variance in Surveys of the Economic Climate (November 1, 2006). XREAP Working Paper No. 2006-06, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1852253 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1852253

Manuela Alcañiz (Contact Author)

University of Barcelona ( email )

Gran Via de les Corts Catalanes, 585
Barcelona, 08007
Spain

Alex Costa

Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya ( email )

Barcelona, 08003

Carme Luna

Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya ( email )

Via Laietana, 58
Barcelona, 08003
Spain

Cristina Rovira

Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya ( email )

Via Laietana, 58
Barcelona, 08003
Spain

No contact information is available for Montserrat Guillen

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