Unemployment Duration and Business Cycle in Argentina: A Quantile Regression Analysis
38 Pages Posted: 5 Jun 2011
Date Written: October 1, 2008
Abstract
Argentina constitutes an interesting case for the analysis of the labour market given that during the nineties it reached high economic growth rates and a stable macroeconomic environment together with a significant raise in unemployment. This dynamic was associated to increases in the entry flows to unemployment and the average duration of these episodes. The proportion of long-term unemployment also grew significantly.
The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to evaluate the presence of differential effects of the business cycle and changes in the productive structure on unemployment hazard rates along the elapsed unemployment duration of the spells. Second, to test the validity of the proportional assumption imposed in most of the studies about unemployment duration as well as to propose the use of an alternative econometric method. Censored quantile regressions will be used in order to estimate in a more flexible and robust way the effect of covariates on the conditional distribution of duration. This is the first study in applying this methodology to unemployment duration in Argentina. The results indicate that the reduction of the labour opportunities implied an increase in unemployment duration, especially for those unemployed with long-term episodes. As a consequence, the long unemployment spells became even longer during the period under analysis.
Keywords: unemployment duration, censored quantile regression
JEL Classification: J64, J65, E24
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
By Bernd Fitzenberger and Ralf A. Wilke
-
New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany
-
Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany
By Elke Lüdemann, Ralf A. Wilke, ...
-
Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data
By Sokbae Lee and Ralf A. Wilke
-
Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer
By Bo E. Honoré and Adriana Lleras-muney
-
By Martin Biewen and Ralf A. Wilke
-
Using Quantile Regression for Duration Analysis
By Bernd Fitzenberger and Ralf A. Wilke
-
By Bernd Fitzenberger and Ralf A. Wilke