Security of Supply and Electricity Network Flows after a Phase-Out of Germany’s Nuclear Plants: Any Trouble Ahead?

10 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2011

See all articles by Friedrich Kunz

Friedrich Kunz

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Christian von Hirschhausen

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics

Dominik Möst

Dresden University of Technology - Faculty of Economics and Business Management

Hannes Weigt

WWZ, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Universität Basel

Date Written: June 6, 2011

Abstract

This paper, which examines the impacts of phasing out nuclear power in Germany, is the first to include an analysis of energy supply security and critical line flows in both the German and Central European electricity networks. The technical-economic model of the European electricity market, ELMOD, is used to simulate alternative power plant dispatch, imports, exports, and network use for a representative winter day. The results suggest that the shutdown of Germany’s nuclear plants will result in higher net imports, especially from the Netherlands, Austria, and Poland, and that electricity generation from fossil fuels will increase slightly in Germany and in Central Europe. We find that no additional imports will come from nuclear plants since they are already fully utilized in the merit order, and that electricity prices will rise on average by a few Euros per MWh. We conclude that closing the seven nuclear power plants within the government’s moratorium will cause no significant supply security issues or network constraints and an eventual full phase-out seem to be possible due to the completion of several new conventional power plants now under construction. Finally, we suggest that a nuclear phase-out in Germany within the next 3-7 years will not undermine security of supply and network stability in Germany and Central Europe.

Keywords: electricity, Germany

JEL Classification: L94

Suggested Citation

Kunz, Friedrich and von Hirschhausen, Christian and Möst, Dominik and Weigt, Hannes, Security of Supply and Electricity Network Flows after a Phase-Out of Germany’s Nuclear Plants: Any Trouble Ahead? (June 6, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1858632 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1858632

Friedrich Kunz (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Christian Von Hirschhausen

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany
+49-30-89789-343 (Phone)
+49/30/897 89 -200 (Fax)

Dominik Möst

Dresden University of Technology - Faculty of Economics and Business Management ( email )

Mommsenstrasse 13
Dresden, D-01062
Germany

Hannes Weigt

WWZ, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Universität Basel ( email )

Basel, 4051
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://fonew.unibas.ch/

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