A Framework for Mapping Industrial Emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full life cycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Road mapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.

Keywords: industrial dynamics, roadmapping

JEL Classification: L00, L2, L5, O30

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Phaal, Rob and O'Sullivan, Eoin and Routley, Michèle J and Ford, Simon and Probert, David, A Framework for Mapping Industrial Emergence (February 1, 2011). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 78, No. 2, pp. 217-230, 2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1879146