The Global Future and its Policy Implications: The Views from Johannesburg, Lagos, and Cairo

Abstract

Several general policy implications emerged from the conferences in South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt. First, while globalization generates overall net benefits through trade and economic development, it exacerbates income inequalities within countries, expanding the gap between the powerful haves and the marginalized have-nots. In Nigeria, in particular, there have been more people below the poverty line since WTO accession. There was serious concern that a growing “underclass” will eventually detach from the existing systems in a highly destabilizing manner. To provide greater access towards the benefits of globalization, education was identified as the key component in enhancing technological capacity within the workforce. Local governance was another primary target of change.

There was widespread recognition that Africa is becoming a battleground of strategic competition for resources between the United States and China, with Europe and India playing a lesser but still important role. China’s source of influence stemmed primarily from its tolerance for higher risk in foreign direct investment as well as from its non-interference in political affairs of the host countries.

While there was some support for Africa to organize itself to pursue trade negotiations more effectively as a regional bloc, it was conceded that Africa has weak regional identity and institutions and will be unlikely to overcome these political obstacles in the foreseeable future. Consequently, the challenge of fielding adequate peacekeeping forces would also continue to fall on individual states, such as South Africa and Nigeria.

In Egypt, there was a clear struggle between moderate and extreme Islam, which might last for as long as a hundred years. To resist and undermine religious extremism offered, for instance, by the Muslim Brotherhood, participants emphasized a comprehensive reform agenda to show the bankruptcy of extremist ideology and the relative advantages and benefits of a moderate and modern society. Notably, the violence and bloodshed associated with terrorism appeared to discredit the underlying ideology and to weaken the extremist actors over time.

Greater involvement on the part of the United States was welcomed, but only to the extent of assisting with development and internal reform, rather than imposing wholesale “democracy promotion.” There was consensus that only Muslims can deal with reform of Islam itself, and that the U.S. can achieve its objectives more effectively by exercising greater restraint. Uniquely among all of the conferences, China was perceived to have limited influence in the Middle East, notwithstanding its economic expansion.