Future Skill Shortages in the U.S. Economy?

37 Pages Posted: 16 Jul 2011 Last revised: 15 Jul 2023

See all articles by David Neumark

David Neumark

University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Hans Johnson

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marisol Cuellar Mejia

Public Policy Institute of California

Date Written: July 2011

Abstract

The impending retirement of the baby boom cohort represents the first time in the history of the United States that such a large and well-educated group of workers will exit the labor force. This could imply skill shortages in the U.S. economy. We develop near-term labor force projections of the educational demands on the workforce and the supply of workers by education to assess the potential for skill imbalances to emerge. Based on our formal projections, we see little likelihood of skill shortages emerging by the end of this decade. More tentatively, though, skill shortages are more likely as all of the baby boomers retire in later years, and skill shortages are more likely in the near-term in states with large and growing immigrant populations.

Suggested Citation

Neumark, David and Johnson, Hans and Cuellar Mejia, Marisol, Future Skill Shortages in the U.S. Economy? (July 2011). NBER Working Paper No. w17213, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1886113

David Neumark (Contact Author)

University of California, Irvine - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Hans Johnson

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Marisol Cuellar Mejia

Public Policy Institute of California ( email )

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Suite 800
San Francisco, CA 94111
United States

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