Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers – Third Quarter 2011

20 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2011

Date Written: July 2011

Abstract

This paper reports the results of a survey of top economics bloggers. The survey was conducted in mid-July 2011 by soliciting input from top economics bloggers as ranked by Palgrave’s Econolog.net. While many (around 50 percent) of the respondents have participated in all quarterly surveys, the results across quarters are not directly comparable.

The Kauffman Foundation is dedicated to the idea that entrepreneurship and innovation drive economic growth. Naturally, this technology of blogging is a fascinating one, both for its effect on the economic research frontier, but also as an innovation in its own right. A survey of so many high-profile participants offers a unique opportunity for discussion, and this survey should be viewed as one way of summarizing some of the insights of the community of economics bloggers.

Key Findings

The Economy Economics bloggers seem even more pessimistic in their outlook on the U.S. economy than they have been so far in 2011, with 95 percent who believe overall conditions are mixed, facing recession, or in recession. For an economy in which growth is the norm, 44 percent of respondents think that the U.S. economy is worse than official statistics indicate, and only 7 percent believe it is better. When asked to describe the economy using five adjectives, “uncertain” remains the most frequently used term.

Policy Recommendations Although the panel is largely nonpartisan, an almost two-thirds majority of top economics bloggers believes the government is too involved in the economy. The top policy recommendations (selected from a small set of choices) remain for the government to “reduce regulatory burdens and fees on new firm formation,” and “approve trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama” with more than 88 percent support. A new policy floated this quarter is a requirement for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to account long-term liabilities in its budget assessment, favored by 88 percent of respondents.

More than half of the participants support an extension of the debt limit without conditions, and just thirty-six favor an amendment to the Constitution that would constrain federal expenditures. However, two key budgetary policies were favored by 57 percent of the panel: (1) capping tax credits and deductions per household, and (2) converting Medicare to a premium support program. The results seem to confirm the nonpartisan makeup of the respondent pool.

Survey Results The Kauffman Economic Outlook includes core questions that will recur each quarter and one-time-only topical questions. Core questions focus on two areas, and are presented in the following charts and tables: the performance of the U.S. economy and policy assessments and recommendations. Finally, there are topical questions provided by economics bloggers themselves, which are not categorized.

Keywords: bloggers, economic, economy, policy, survey

Suggested Citation

Kane, Tim J., Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers – Third Quarter 2011 (July 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1898365 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1898365

Tim J. Kane (Contact Author)

Hoover Institution ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305-6010
United States

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