Revisiting ‘An Identified Systemic Model of The Democracy-Peace Nexus’: New Tools, New Uses

Abstract

In this paper we revisit the work of James, Solberg and Wolfson (Defence & Peace Economics, 1999) that introduced an identified, simultaneous two-equation interactive system estimation of the relationship between democracy and conflict. In the decade following this research, which suggested a causal role for conflict relative to democracy, a number of theoretical and empirical advances have been made. These steps forward include an innovative statistical technique for estimating simultaneous equations with categorical dependent variables. This paper will build on these advances to update the earlier findings noted above. Additionally, the paper will use this system of equations to explore a variety of new independent variables and novel measurements of established independent variables that have emerged in the conflict processes literature. The analysis also includes a case illustration of the causal mechanisms presumed to be at work.