Modeling Elections in Post-Communist Polities: Voter Perceptions, Political Leaders and Activists
49 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2011 Last revised: 16 Aug 2011
Date Written: 2011
Abstract
This paper applies a stochastic electoral model to modeling elections in Poland in 1997, 2001 and 2005, in Georgia in 2008, and in Azerbaijan in 2010. We find that in Poland the valence differences are sufficiently large to force low valence parties or candidates to adopt divergent positions.
We argue that this implies a fundamental difference between an electoral system based on plurality rule in contrast to one based on proportional representation.
In addition, in "anocracies" such as Georgia and Aizerbaijan, the limited access to the media by the parties in opposition to the president means that their support groups find it difficult to coalesce. As a consequence, they are unable to press successfully for greater democratization. In these countries, the presidential electoral system is highly majoritarian, and the President's party dominates the political arena, controlling political resources and the media.
We conclude by giving an overview of the empirical results that have been obtained so far for the three plurality democracies of the USA, Britain and Canada, three polities with proportional electoral systems, and the three anocracies of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia.
Keywords: stochastic electoral model, valence, electoral perceptions, local Nash equilibrium
JEL Classification: H20
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation