Modeling Elections in Post-Communist Polities: Voter Perceptions, Political Leaders and Activists

49 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2011 Last revised: 16 Aug 2011

See all articles by Norman J. Schofield

Norman J. Schofield

Washington University in St. Louis

Maria E. Gallego

Wilfrid Laurier University

Jee Seon Jeon

Washington University in St. Louis

Ugur Ozdemir

Washington University in St. Louis

Margit Tavits

Washington University in St. Louis

Date Written: 2011

Abstract

This paper applies a stochastic electoral model to modeling elections in Poland in 1997, 2001 and 2005, in Georgia in 2008, and in Azerbaijan in 2010. We find that in Poland the valence differences are sufficiently large to force low valence parties or candidates to adopt divergent positions.

We argue that this implies a fundamental difference between an electoral system based on plurality rule in contrast to one based on proportional representation.

In addition, in "anocracies" such as Georgia and Aizerbaijan, the limited access to the media by the parties in opposition to the president means that their support groups find it difficult to coalesce. As a consequence, they are unable to press successfully for greater democratization. In these countries, the presidential electoral system is highly majoritarian, and the President's party dominates the political arena, controlling political resources and the media.

We conclude by giving an overview of the empirical results that have been obtained so far for the three plurality democracies of the USA, Britain and Canada, three polities with proportional electoral systems, and the three anocracies of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia.

Keywords: stochastic electoral model, valence, electoral perceptions, local Nash equilibrium

JEL Classification: H20

Suggested Citation

Schofield, Norman J. and Gallego, Maria E. and Jeon, Jee Seon and Ozdemir, Ugur and Tavits, Margit, Modeling Elections in Post-Communist Polities: Voter Perceptions, Political Leaders and Activists (2011). APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1903472

Norman J. Schofield

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63104
United States

Maria E. Gallego (Contact Author)

Wilfrid Laurier University ( email )

75 University Ave W
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3C5
Canada

Jee Seon Jeon

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Ugur Ozdemir

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Margit Tavits

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

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