How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

30 Pages Posted: 18 Oct 2011

See all articles by Philippe Bracke

Philippe Bracke

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE); Bank of England - Structural Economic Analysis Division

Date Written: October 2011

Abstract

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.

Keywords: Business cycles, Cross country analysis, Housing prices, OECD, Price adjustments, Price increases

Suggested Citation

Bracke, Philippe and Bracke, Philippe, How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries (October 2011). IMF Working Paper No. 11/231, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1945618

Philippe Bracke (Contact Author)

Bank of England - Structural Economic Analysis Division ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
290
Abstract Views
1,136
Rank
191,631
PlumX Metrics