Decadal Climate Variability in the Argentine Pampas: Regional Impacts of Plausible Climate Scenarios on Agricultural Systems

Climate Research, Vol. 40, pp. 199-210, 2009

12 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2011

See all articles by Balaji Rajagopalan

Balaji Rajagopalan

Oakland University - School of Business Administration

Carlos E. Laciana

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Elke U. Weber

Princeton University - Department of Psychology

Richard M. Katz

Columbia University - Columbia Business School

David Letson

University of Miami - School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Date Written: 2010

Abstract

The Pampas of Argentina have shown some of the most consistently increasing trends in precipitation during the 20th century. The rainfall increase has partly contributed to a significant expansion of agricultural area, particularly in climatically marginal regions of the Pampas. However, it is unclear if current agricultural production systems, which evolved partly in response to enhanced climate conditions, may remain viable if (as entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. We assess the potential impacts of a plausible decreasing trend in precipitation on the economic sustainability of 2 contrasting agricultural systems in the Pampas: Pergamino, in the most productive subregion of the Pampas, and Pilar, in the northern, semi-arid margin of the region. Also, we explore the scope for adaptation to changing climate. In the case where there is no adaptation, if precipitation decreases, as is plausible, impacts may be quite different between locations: whereas in Pergamino crop economic returns would not change noticeably, the more marginal Pilar would experience a marked decrease in profits and an increase in production risks. However, potential negative impacts might be mitigated, in part, if farmers adapt their agronomic management using current available technology or know-how.

Keywords: climate impacts, climate scenarios, adaptation, decision-making, cumulative prospect theory, crop models, Argentina, land allocation, genetic algorithms

Suggested Citation

Rajagopalan, Balaji and Laciana, Carlos E. and Weber, Elke U. and Katz, Richard M. and Letson, David, Decadal Climate Variability in the Argentine Pampas: Regional Impacts of Plausible Climate Scenarios on Agricultural Systems (2010). Climate Research, Vol. 40, pp. 199-210, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1951653

Balaji Rajagopalan

Oakland University - School of Business Administration ( email )

Rochester, MI 48309-4401
United States

Carlos E. Laciana

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Elke U. Weber (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Department of Psychology

Green Hall
Princeton, NJ 08540
United States

Richard M. Katz

Columbia University - Columbia Business School ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

David Letson

University of Miami - School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences ( email )

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