Estimating the Impact of the Volatility of Shocks: A Structural VAR Approach
24 Pages Posted: 1 Nov 2011
Date Written: October 31, 2011
Abstract
A large empirical literature has examined the transmission mechanism of structural shocks in great detail. The possible role played by changes in the volatility of shocks has largely been overlooked in vector autoregression based applications. This paper proposes an extended vector autoregression where the volatility of structural shocks is allowed to be time-varying and to have a direct impact on the endogenous variables included in the model. The proposed model is applied to US data to consider the potential impact of changes in the volatility of monetary policy shocks. The results suggest that while an increase in this volatility has a statistically significant impact on GDP growth and inflation, the relative contribution of these shocks to the forecast error variance of these variables is estimated to be small.
Keywords: Vector autoregression, stochastic volatility, particle filter
JEL Classification: E30, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending
-
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
By Harald Uhlig and Andrew Mountford
-
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
By Andrew Mountford and Harald Uhlig
-
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
By Andrew Mountford and Harald Uhlig
-
Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption
By Jordi Galí, David Lopez-salido, ...
-
Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption
By Jordi Galí, David Lopez-salido, ...