Should Obama Have Won More Convincingly in 2008?
Posted: 15 Dec 2011
Date Written: December, 15 2011
Abstract
The Autumn 2008 presidential elections saw the country in a situation with a falling economy, an unpopular Republican president, and two less than popular wars. These conditions are well known to hurt the incumbent party. Although Obama won, with these conditions, what would we expect had a generic Democrat run? I review forecast models and conclude that they suggest a generic Democrat would have gained an additional 2 or 3 percent of the vote, making the election a landslide. I propose a non-forecast (after the fact) model with the same result. Further, a review of the 2010 Congressional elections yields an estimate of a Democratic loss of about 2 percent more than what was predicted by the models. We find a small, but consistent, opposition to Obama that is not explained in the models.
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