Dynamic Macroeconomic Convergence in the West Africa Monetary Zone (WAMZ)

Abstract

The paper empirically investigates the issue of macroeconomic convergence in the West Africa Monetary Zone (WAMZ) using monthly data from 1990:01 to 2010:05 as part of the ongoing discussion on the single currency for West Africa, The ECO initiative. The study specifically examines exchange and inflation rates convergence and finds no evidence of convergence in inflation in the WAMZ and little support for convergence in exchange rate. The findings imply that WAMZ is not ready for a single currency and that the decision to postpone the introduction of the Eco to 2015 is in a right direction. The possibility of introducing the ECO requires a change of macroeconomic policy direction of member countries due to evidence of divergence in inflation across the region and higher distance to convergence.

Keywords: Kalman, convergence, ECO, single currency

JEL Classification: M0, N0