Industrial Revolutions and Demographic Transitions

Duke Economics Working Paper No. 99-11

42 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2000

See all articles by Michelle Connolly

Michelle Connolly

Duke University - Department of Economics

Pietro F. Peretto

Duke University - Department of Economics; Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative

Abstract

We generalize the class of growth models in which the scale of the economy has level rather than growth effects, and study the implications of different demographic and research policies when both fertility choice and research effort are endogenous. The model incorporates two dimensions of technological progress: vertical (quality of goods) and horizontal (variety of goods). Both dimensions contribute to productivity growth but are driven by different processes and hence react differently to specific policies. For example, while unbounded vertical progress is feasible, the scale of the economy limits the variety of goods. Incorporating Jones' (1998) suggestion of a natural linearity in reproduction generates steady-state population growth and variety expansion. We thus have two engines of growth generating dynamics that we compare with observed changes in demographics, market structure, and patterns of growth. This allows us to study industrial revolutions and demographic transitions as two interdependent forces driving a country's process of economic transformation.

JEL Classification: O40

Suggested Citation

Connolly, Michelle and Peretto, Pietro F., Industrial Revolutions and Demographic Transitions. Duke Economics Working Paper No. 99-11, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=202296 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.202296

Michelle Connolly (Contact Author)

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States
919-660-1819 (Phone)
919-684-8974 (Fax)

Pietro F. Peretto

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States
919-660-1807 (Phone)
919-684-8974 (Fax)

Duke Innovation & Entrepreneurship Initiative ( email )

215 Morris St., Suite 300
Durham, NC 27701
United States

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