Uncertain Policy Decisions and Investment Timing: Evidence from Small Hydropower Plants

Abstract

Based on panel data of 214 licenses to construct small hydropower plants, we examine whether uncertainty with respect to the introduction of a market for renewable energy certificates affected the timing of investments in Norway from 2001 to 2010. Using regression analysis, we find that (1) investors owning a portfolio of licenses acted in accordance with a real options investment rule, and uncertain climate policy decisions delayed their investment rate; and (2) investors owning a single license acted in accordance with a traditional net present value investment rule, focusing on the value of the immediate investment and ignoring policy uncertainty.

Keywords: Policy uncertainty, Renewable energy, Investments, Real options, Discrete choice models