Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias

15 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2012

See all articles by Michael DiFilippo

Michael DiFilippo

Ohio University

Justin L. Davis

University of West Florida

Andy Fodor

Ohio University

Kevin Krieger

University of West Florida

Date Written: April 27, 2012

Abstract

Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. We present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. We find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL season yields a statistically significant profit of 13.6% per game.

Keywords: Over/Under, Totals, NFL, Sports Betting, Behavioral, Holdover Bias, Market Efficiency

JEL Classification: D82, G12, L8, D81

Suggested Citation

DiFilippo, Michael and Davis, Justin L. and Fodor, Andy and Krieger, Kevin, Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias (April 27, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2047244 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2047244

Michael DiFilippo

Ohio University ( email )

Athens, OH 45701-2979
United States

Justin L. Davis

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

Andy Fodor (Contact Author)

Ohio University ( email )

514 Copeland Hall
Athens, OH 45701
United States
740.593.0259 (Phone)

Kevin Krieger

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States