Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change

46 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by S. Amer Ahmed

S. Amer Ahmed

World Bank

Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Stanford University

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP)

Will J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: July 1, 2012

Abstract

Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partners' usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.

Keywords: Climate Change Economics, Economic Theory & Research, Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases, Science of Climate Change, Trade Policy

Suggested Citation

Ahmed, S. Amer and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Hertel, Thomas W. and Martin, William J., Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change (July 1, 2012). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6132, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2110093

S. Amer Ahmed (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

Department of Agricultural Economics
1145 Krannert Building
West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
765-494-4199 (Phone)
765-494-9176 (Fax)

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

5735 S. Ellis Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

William J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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