The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations
53 Pages Posted: 16 Aug 2012
There are 2 versions of this paper
The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations
The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations
Date Written: August 16, 2012
Abstract
This paper studies whether fiscal corrections cause large output losses. We find that it matters crucially how the fiscal correction occurs. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax-based ones. Spending-based adjustments have been associated with mild and short-lived recessions, in many cases with no recession at all. Tax-based adjustments have been associated with prolonged and deep recessions. The difference cannot be explained by different monetary policies during the two types of adjustments. Studying the effects of multi-year fiscal plans rather than individual shifts in fiscal variables we make progress on question of anticipated versus unanticipated policy shifts: we find that the correlation between unanticipated and anticipated shifts in taxes and spending is heterogeneous across countries, suggesting that the degree of persistence of fiscal corrections varies. Estimating the effects of fiscal plans, rather than individual fiscal shocks, we obtain much more precise estimates of tax and spending multipliers.
Keywords: fiscal adjustment, output, confidence, investment
JEL Classification: H60, E62
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending
-
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
By Harald Uhlig and Andrew Mountford
-
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
By Andrew Mountford and Harald Uhlig
-
What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
By Andrew Mountford and Harald Uhlig
-
Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption
By Jordi Galí, David Lopez-salido, ...
-
Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption
By Jordi Galí, David Lopez-salido, ...