Outside Looking In: What Explains Non-Accession to the WTO?
24 Pages Posted: 26 Oct 2012
Date Written: October 25, 2012
Abstract
Since its institutional birth in 1947, the GATT/WTO (WTO) has mushroomed from 23 original Contracting Parties to 157 Members as of September 2012. Another 28 countries are currently observers, each at varying stages of the accession process. WTO Members and observers cover some 99% of the world's population and over 99% of global trade. However, this still leaves tens of millions of people and billions of dollars of exchange outside the multilateral rules-based trading system. This paper asks what accounts for the decision not to seek accession by the thirteen 'outsider' countries. I argue that in most cases the decision not to accede ('non accession') differs significantly from the decision to eventually seek accession ('delayed accession') and that the traditional factors that account for more lengthy accession processes, such as existing trade ties, membership in preferential trade agreements, and/or levels of democracy or income, do not explain those countries who have not yet sought to join the WTO. Instead, this paper finds that internal capacity constraints combined with an increasingly complex accession process, and the lack of domestic political support due to underlying economic conditions in outsider countries, drive policymakers' decisions not to seek WTO membership. These hypotheses are tested using established proportional-hazard techniques. The findings are then further illustrated through a comparative country-level narrative of WTO (non)-accession decision making in two small-island countries.
Keywords: WTO, trade, aid, accession, development, international organizations
JEL Classification: F1, F13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation