The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Abstract

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR-model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979-2011Q2, to discriminate - between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic-consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), interconnectedness, global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks., oil exporters, exporters, oil prices, exporting countries, oil importers, reer, importing countries, oil-importing countries, commodity exporters, oil exporter, real effective exchange rate, oil exports, exporter, petroleum exporting countries, bilateral trade, aggregate demand, export data, commodity prices, energy exporters, trading partners, oil-exporting countries, trade flows, world economy, capital flows, international trade, open capital accounts, price fluctuations, economic cooperation, trade share, oil export, domestic production,

JEL Classification: C32, E17, F44, F47, Q41