Flood Risk Assessment through Bayesian Networks: Effects of Adaptive and Coping Capacity in Risk Reduction to People

EGU Leonardo Conference 2012, Torino, Italy, 14-16 November, 2012

1 Pages Posted: 15 Nov 2012

See all articles by Vahid Mojtahed

Vahid Mojtahed

Independent

Stefano Balbi

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Carlo Giupponi

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Date Written: 2012

Abstract

The following BN focuses on how to identify costs related to the first exposure category: people. This is based on the methodology of Defra (2009) and further developed with Penning Roswell et al. (2005), Department of transport UK (2007), OECD (2012). Hazard (H) is described with the light blue nodes, exposure (E) with the green nodes, vulnerability (V) with the orange nodes and the costs with the yellow nodes.

Vulnerability is given by susceptibility and some adaptive and coping capacities variables affecting the injuries rate (over75 and disabled), risk governance (risk awareness, per capita number of trained volunteers) and early warning effectiveness (reliability and lead time). A knowledge-based approach to flood risk reduction is captured by acting on the early warning effectiveness and on the risk governance.

Keywords: poster, EGU Leonardo 2012, Bayesian Networks, flood risk to people

JEL Classification: Q2

Suggested Citation

Mojtahed, Vahid and Balbi, Stefano and Balbi, Stefano and Giupponi, Carlo, Flood Risk Assessment through Bayesian Networks: Effects of Adaptive and Coping Capacity in Risk Reduction to People (2012). EGU Leonardo Conference 2012, Torino, Italy, 14-16 November, 2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2175124

Vahid Mojtahed

Independent

Stefano Balbi (Contact Author)

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) ( email )

Gran Vía 35-2
Bilbao, Vizcaya 48009
Spain

Carlo Giupponi

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy

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