Equity Volatility as a Determinant of Future Term-Structure Volatility

Abstract

We show that equity volatility serves as a determinant of future Treasury term-structure volatility over the recent October 1997 to June 2013 period. We find that equity volatility contains incrementally reliable information for the subsequent volatility of: (1) 10-year and 30-year bond futures returns, (2) the term-structure's level, and (3) the term-structure's slope. We present additional evidence that suggests a flight-to-quality/flight-from-quality pricing avenue is a likely contributor to the volatility linkages, where time-varying economic uncertainty can generate both a large positive serial correlation in stock volatility and a time-variation in the precautionary savings motive and diversification benefits of holding bonds.

Keywords: Equity Risk, Term Structure, Bond Volatility

JEL Classification: G12, G14