The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look

21 Pages Posted: 5 Dec 2012

See all articles by Yash P. Mehra

Yash P. Mehra

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Date Written: August 12, 2004

Abstract

The empirical test of the output gap-based New Keynesian Phillips curve often has been implemented by estimating a hybrid specification that includes both lagged and future inflation and then by examining whether the estimated coefficient on future inflation is significantly larger than the one on lagged inflation. This article presents the evidence that indicates supply shocks significantly enter the hybrid specification. The results reported in previous research — the output gap is irrelevant and expected future inflation is the major determinant of inflation — arise if the hybrid specification is estimated omitting supply shocks and/or lagged inflation. In the hybrid specification estimated with supply shocks, the output gap is significant. The estimated coefficient on future inflation is quantitatively small, but the estimated coefficient on lagged inflation is significantly larger than the one on future inflation. The null hypothesis that the estimated coefficient on lagged inflation is unity is not rejected if the hybrid specification nests an alternative version of the traditional Phillips curve in which inflation responds also to a change in the output gap. Together these results suggest that expected future inflation is not the major determinant of current inflation.

Keywords: output gap, supply shocks, expected future inflation

JEL Classification: E10, E31

Suggested Citation

Mehra, Yash P., The Output Gap, Expected Future Inflation and Inflation Dynamics: Another Look (August 12, 2004). FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 04-06, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2184948 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2184948

Yash P. Mehra (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond ( email )

P.O. Box 27622
Richmond, VA 23261
United States
804-697-8247 (Phone)
804-697-8255 (Fax)

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