Improved Performance of Agriculture in Africa South of the Sahara: Taking Off or Bouncing Back

44 Pages Posted: 5 Dec 2012

See all articles by Alejandro Nin Pratt

Alejandro Nin Pratt

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Michael Johnson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Bingxin Yu

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: November 1, 2012

Abstract

The improved performance of the agricultural sector in Africa south of the Sahara during the most recent decade (2000-2010) has raised questions about the drivers behind the growth. Skeptics argue that rising commodity prices, as world markets experience a commodity boom, are the main cause of the agricultural growth. Others point to improvements in the policy environment and increased investments in agriculture at a time when African governments and donors have been rallying to increase their support to agriculture. Is African agriculture undergoing a new and sustained recovery after many decades of stagnant and volatile growth rates — or is it simply riding the current global commodity boom? We attempt to answer this question by analyzing the structure of overall agricultural growth in the past 30 years using a growth decomposition approach. Results show both good and bad news for future prospects of African agricultural growth. The good news is that a changing policy environment and increased attention to agriculture has had a major effect on overall productivity growth based on technical efficiency gains. The bad news is that most of this productivity growth is the result of countries recovering from the poor performance of the 1980s and 1990s together with favorable domestic prices. A key challenge for African countries in the years to come is to transform the current windfall gains from favorable high commodity prices and the one-time effects of policy reforms into sustainable growth based on technical change.

Keywords: Agriculture, Agricultural growth, Agricultural productivity, growth accounting, economic growth, Commodities, Agricultural policies, Africa South of Sahara, Africa

Suggested Citation

Nin Pratt, Alejandro and Johnson, Michael and Yu, Bingxin, Improved Performance of Agriculture in Africa South of the Sahara: Taking Off or Bouncing Back (November 1, 2012). IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 01224, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2185045 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2185045

Alejandro Nin Pratt (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Michael Johnson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

Development Strategy and Governance Division
2033 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006
United States
+1 202-862-5600 (Phone)
+1 202-467-4439 (Fax)

Bingxin Yu

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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