The Nature of Volatility in Temporal Profit with in Ethiopian Commodity Exchange: The Case of Washed Export Coffee Modelled Using ARFIMA-M-HYGARCH Model

Abstract

Using AFIRMA-M-HYGARCH model it is found that the structure of temporal profit was observed to change in three periods. Since the second and third periods are associated with lagged effect of heavy handed state intervention, it was possible to get an idea to the effect of such state policy. It is concluded in this paper that the strategy was more destabilizing and it did harm wholesale traders by reducing their return from volatility, but it also improve their leverage to some extent. More over in what state intervention resulted is in changing the stable high volatility toward more structured and hard to control clustered volatility, than reducing it. For some time, however, the limit of the volatility was reduced while destabilizing the market from day to day. In general the washed export coffee market is observed to have high level of volatility in temporal profit.

Keywords: Ethiopian commodity exchange, coffee export, Ethiopia, ECX, FIGARCH, HYGARCH, ARFIMA