Food Security and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam

Abstract

Analysing Vietnam's rice export policy and recent export ban in the context of rising food prices, this study combines insights from a regionally-disaggregated or 'bottom-up' CGE model and a micro-simulation using household data. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, although there is little impact on GDP, there are substantial distributional impacts across regions and households from different export policies and market conditions. Second, both rural and urban households, including poor households, benefit from free trade, even though domestic rice prices are higher. Finally, under free trade, relatively large gains accrue to rural households, where poverty is most pervasive in Vietnam.

Keywords: food policy, trade and welfare, rice production, regional ‘bottom up’ CGE mode