The Ideological and Electoral Determinants of Laws Targeting Undocumented Migrants in the U.S. States

Abstract

State legislatures have been extremely active in passing legislation relating to all facets of immigration policy over the last several years. In this article, I develop a framework that explains how party ideology, party control of the legislature and electoral conditions affect the likelihood that a state legislature will adopt policies that increase immigration enforcement. I test my arguments using state immigration policy adoption data that spans from 2005 to 2011. I find that conservative Republican state parties are more likely to pass legislation enhancing immigration enforcement — on the condition that the Republican Party controls the state’s legislative institutions. However, the willingness of Republican controlled legislatures to pass immigration reform is often tempered by electoral concerns. Republican controlled legislatures in states where Latinos make up a large proportion of the electorate are significantly less likely to adopt new legislation that targets undocumented migrants. I argue that Republican support for increasing sanctions on undocumented migrants is eroded by the potential for an electoral backlash from Latino voters. Democratic legislatures are unlikely to pass legislation under any conditions. Ultimately, the observed pattern of policy adoption is the product of the tradeoff between the state parties’ ideologically driven policy goals and the electoral consequences associated with actually implementing immigration policies.

Keywords: Immigration, Immigration Policy, State Politics, Latino Politics