The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989

30 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2000 Last revised: 16 Dec 2022

See all articles by Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

University of Maryland - Department of Economics

Joseph S. Tracy

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Date Written: May 1995

Abstract

It is argued in many circles that a structural change occurred in U.S. collective bargaining in the 1980s. We investigate the extent to which the hiring of replacement workers can account for this change. For a sample of over 300 major strikes since 1980, we estimate the likelihood of replacements being hired. We find that the risk of replacement declines during tight labor markets, and is lower for bargaining units with more experienced workers. We use the predicted replacement risk as an explanatory variable in a model of the union's choice between the strike and holdout threat. We find that strike usage decreases significantly as the predicted replacement risk increases. We estimate that a ban on the use of replacement workers would have increased strike incidence from 1982-1989 by 3 percentage points, a 30 percent increase.

Suggested Citation

Cramton, Peter C. and Tracy, Joseph, The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989 (May 1995). NBER Working Paper No. w5106, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225171

Peter C. Cramton (Contact Author)

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

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Joseph Tracy

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

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