The Hunt for the Cyber-Terrorist
30 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2013 Last revised: 7 Jun 2021
Date Written: April 15, 2013
Abstract
Data concerning the financial costs inflicted by different categories of cyber-attack methods is used to analyse ‘attack method’ choice. Cyber-attacks represent opportunities to inflict financial costs on individuals, organisations and governments. The analysis examines how a perpetrator weighing up the risks and rewards of cyber-crime or cyber-terrorism may choose from among the available attack methods. The analysis takes into consideration the possibility that the perpetrator may aim to inflict a maximum financial cost at a particular level of risk and the potential implications of perpetrators combining attack methods over the course of a series of attacks. After analysing the opportunities and choices of cyber-attackers, the analysis is used as a framework for identifying certain characteristics of the perpetrator that may be inferred from their choice of attack method. This represents the first steps towards the development of a typology or classification scheme for cyber-attackers based on the risk preference revealed by their choices.
Note: this is a 2013 working paper. The available data series was too short at that time. As such, this can be treated as a concept paper. A new, final version is now in progress. The bigger data set from the Ponemon Institute and the calculations based on it is contained at the end of this paper (Appendix A). As expected, with more data, the shape of the efficient set becomes more distinct.
Keywords: cyber-terrorism, cyber-terrorist, cyber-criminal, offender, law enforcement, classification scheme, typology, psychological profiling, risk, risk preference, financial cost
JEL Classification: D74, D81, H56, K42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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