Understanding the U.S. Export Boom

35 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2000 Last revised: 6 Aug 2022

See all articles by Andrew B. Bernard

Andrew B. Bernard

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

J. Bradford Jensen

Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business; Peterson Institute for International Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 1998

Abstract

U.S. exports grew at a rate of 8.2% per year from 1987-1994, far faster than the economy as a whole or even the manufacturing sector. This paper examines the source of this export boom and argues that the boom itself has been less remarkable for the rate of growth of exports than for the striking increase in export intensity. This increase in export intensity has occurred both in the aggregate and for individual plants across a wide range of industries. Competing explanations for the rise in exports are tested with a comprehensive plant level data set. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income are the dominant sources for the export increase, while productivity increases in U.S. plants play a relatively small role. The results suggest that slower growth rates of U.S. trading partners and an appreciation of the dollar will have strong negative effects on the growth rate of U.S. manufacturing exports.

Suggested Citation

Bernard, Andrew B. and Jensen, J. Bradford, Understanding the U.S. Export Boom (March 1998). NBER Working Paper No. w6438, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226185

Andrew B. Bernard (Contact Author)

Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

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J. Bradford Jensen

Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business ( email )

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Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

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United States

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