From the P4 to the TPP: Transplantation or Transformation?

Abstract

Since the very beginning, the P4 Agreement has been conceived as a catalyst for a broader free trade agreement (hereafter ‘FTA’) that would ultimately include most major economies in Asia Pacific. That’s why the Agreement includes an explicit clause that allows ‘any APEC economy or other state’ to seek accession.

With Australia, Malaysia, Peru, the United States, Vietnam and a host of other countries lining up to join the TPP, the P4 is making good progress towards expanding into a truly trans-Pacific mega-deal. The transition from the P4 to the TPP can be achieved through either of two possible ways: the first is the simpler route of transplanting the existing framework of the P4 into the TPP; the second is making a substantial transformation and going deeper than what the P4 has achieved. What are the pros and cons of each approach? Which route shall be taken? What is the likely outcome based on the current negotiating dynamic? In this paper, we will try to provide some answers to these questions.

Keywords: TPP, WTO, FTA, P4

JEL Classification: F02, F15