Introducing the ECB Indicator on Euro Area Industrial New Orders

36 Pages Posted: 24 Aug 2013

See all articles by Gabe de Bondt

Gabe de Bondt

European Central Bank (ECB)

Heinz Christian Dieden

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sona Muzikarova

European Central Bank (ECB)

Istvan Vincze

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: May 13, 2013

Abstract

Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns. Despite the discontinuation of the data collection at European level, a large number of euro area countries are expected to continue with the data collection nationally. For those countries which have discontinued the collection of national data, model-estimates are used in calculating the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders. New orders are modelled across EU countries using "soft" data (business opinion surveys) as well as "hard" data (industrial turnover) and applying a common modelling framework. The model determinants significantly explain the monthly growth rates in new orders across approximately 200 estimated equations. Various tests show that the estimates are robust. This paper demonstrates that, besides the leading information content of industrial new orders for euro area industrial production, the monitoring of the ECB indicator on new orders is useful for cross-checking developments in industrial production in real time.

Keywords: ECB indicator, euro area, industrial new orders, leading indicators, real-time analysis

JEL Classification: E10, E13, E17

Suggested Citation

de Bondt, Gabe and Dieden, Heinz Christian and Muzikarova, Sona and Vincze, Istvan, Introducing the ECB Indicator on Euro Area Industrial New Orders (May 13, 2013). ECB Occasional Paper No. 149, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2264195 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2264195

Gabe De Bondt (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Eurotower
Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
+49 69 13440 (Phone)
+44 69 1344 6000 (Fax)

Heinz Christian Dieden

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Sona Muzikarova

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Istvan Vincze

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

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