Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities

Abstract

This paper documents the extent of similarities and differences of business cycle characteristics of the Asian countries and compares the cyclical regularities in this region with those of the G7 countries. The Asian economies are generally more volatile than the G7 countries, but the amplitude of economic fluctuations in the Asian countries tends to decrease over time. Comovement and persistence properties of business cycles in the Asian countries are very similar to those of the G7 economies. We find that while the patterns of business cycle fluctuations in the main macroeconomic aggregates display important similarities, the behavior of fiscal and monetary policy variables exhibits significant differences across the Asian countries. Moreover, there is a high degree of comovement between the individual country business cycles and our measures of the Asian business cycle, indicating that there is a regional business cycle specific to the Asian countries. These results provide important insight into the short-run macroeconomic dynamics, as well as to the region's long-run economic policy objectives.

JEL Classification: E32, F40, F41, O53