Pakistani Public Opinion and American Drone Attacks: The Role of Exposure to the Elite Narrative

Abstract

This paper is an analysis of the sources of Pakistani public opinion toward American drone strikes in the tribal areas of Pakistan. An examination of Pakistani opinion toward the drones show two clear patterns: A slim majority of Pakistanis know about the drone strikes but that number is growing over time. Also, those Pakistanis who know about the drone strikes are very opposed to them. We argue that the rather limited knowledge of the drone strikes is not for lack of an elite discourse about drone attacks but because of the relatively low levels of political cognitive mobilization in a population with very low levels of education. But given the almost universal condemnation of drone strikes from all stripes of Pakistani political and societal elites, we argue that it is to be expected that those who have absorbed a good deal of information about the strikes will be greatly opposed to the attacks. In other words, in an informational environment such as Pakistan has been for the last few years, to have heard about drone strikes is to have been exposed to nearly unanimous elite criticism of drone strikes with an extremely limited counter-narrative. Thus, we argue that the more a Pakistani has heard of drone strikes in Pakistan, the more likely she is to oppose them. This hypothesis is tested in a Heckman analysis, which confirms our supposition.

Keywords: Pakistan, public opinion, drones, elite narratives