How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania?

Amfiteatru Economic, Vol XI (Special Issue: 3), pg. 675-683, 2009

9 Pages Posted: 3 Aug 2013

See all articles by Lucian-Liviu Albu

Lucian-Liviu Albu

Romanian Academy - Institute for Economic Forecasting; Romanian Academy - Institute for Economic Forecasting

Vasile Dinu

ASE Bucharest; Academy of Romanian Scientists

Date Written: November 4, 2009

Abstract

Using adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to build a composite indicator based on some monthly time series and to use it in order to obtain short-term forecasts for economic activity at national level. This indicator could be useful taking into account that actually there is no synthetic indicator to describe short-run dynamics of economic activity. To verify hypotheses of the estimating model for composite index, we used in case of Romanian economy the quarterly time series for the elements of it and quarterly published GDP as a benchmark indicator.

Keywords: composite index, economic recession, business cycle indicators, high frequency time series

JEL Classification: C22, C63, C82, E32

Suggested Citation

Albu, Lucian-Liviu and Albu, Lucian-Liviu and Dinu, Vasile, How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania? (November 4, 2009). Amfiteatru Economic, Vol XI (Special Issue: 3), pg. 675-683, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2305227

Lucian-Liviu Albu

Romanian Academy - Institute for Economic Forecasting ( email )

Bucharest, 050711
Romania

HOME PAGE: http://www.ipe.ro

Romanian Academy - Institute for Economic Forecasting ( email )

Bucharest, 050711
Romania

HOME PAGE: http://www.ipe.ro

Vasile Dinu (Contact Author)

ASE Bucharest ( email )

Piata Romana, No.6
Bucharest
Romania

Academy of Romanian Scientists ( email )

Romania

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