Dynamics and Time Scope of Post War Recovery Required for Compensating Civil War Economic Losses

Abstract

Civil war is often caused by poverty, and further demolishes existing capital. Such a vicious circle is detrimental for economic development of countries experiencing civil war. Civil war may also contribute to creative destructions of traditional economic, social and political system, leading to a more rapid post-war growth. Until now little research exists tackling problems whether and how rapidly civil war victims recover from such negative events in the sense economic losses are reversed. Based on a present value model this study estimates dynamics and time scopes of post-war recovery required for compensating civil war GDP losses in several countries.

Keywords: civil war, GDP losses, long-term post-war recovery, developing countries, present value model

JEL Classification: F510, O110, O550, P520