Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Abstract

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial interconnectedness -- a possible source of systemic risk -- can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises during the 1978-2010 period. Our results indicate that increases in a country's own connectedness and decreases in its neighbors' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. Our findings suggest that financial interconnectedness has early-warning potential, especially for the 2007-2010 wave of systemic banking crises.

Keywords: early warning systems, systemic risk, financial networks, banking crises

JEL Classification: G01, F36, F47