Nowcasting World GDP and Trade Using Global Indicators

11 Pages Posted: 18 Sep 2013

Date Written: September 17, 2013

Abstract

Global activity is a key driver of UK economic growth. Official estimates of world GDP and trade are only available with a lag, but more timely global indicators can give an early steer on growth. Global indicators have been useful in predicting large swings in world activity and have been particularly helpful since the onset of the financial crisis. A combination of these indicators has performed much better at tracking world GDP and trade growth since 2008 than a simple benchmark model. The global manufacturing PMI export orders index has been the single best indicator during this period.

Suggested Citation

Stratford, Kate, Nowcasting World GDP and Trade Using Global Indicators (September 17, 2013). Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2327472

Kate Stratford (Contact Author)

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

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