Exploring Prospective Predictors of Child Abduction by Parent

Abstract

Using a nationally representative data set (the National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrownaway Children, NISMART-2), variables were tested to identify predictors of child abduction by parent (CABP). Only one predictor (age of the child) was significantly, though weakly, associated with CABP perpetrated by fathers, adoptive fathers, step-fathers, or their significant others. Challenges associated with predicting rare phenomenon, and suggestions for improving the next wave of NISMART data were discussed.

Keywords: NISMART, CABP, child abduction by parent, low base rate prediction