Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers, First Quarter 2010

Abstract

America’s top economics bloggers represent a diverse group of writers with wide-ranging intellectual and political vantage points on one of the most important issues of the day — the economy. As independent thinkers who are immersed in discourse through the innovation of blogging, these economics writers have a unique voice and perspective, and potentially profound influence. The Kauffman Foundation is tapping their insights in a new series of surveys called Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Top Economics Bloggers.

For this survey, Donald Marron (dmarron.com) helped design questions about the U.S. budget deficit, its risks, and policy remedies. Dr. Marron has held positions as the chief economist and member of the Council of Economic Advisers, acting director of the Congressional Budget Office, and executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. Because time constrains the number of ideas that can be communicated, this survey should be viewed as just one way of summarizing the insights of the community of economics bloggers.

Key Findings: The Economy: Economics bloggers have a bleak outlook of the U.S. economy, with 48 percent responding that conditions are worse than official statistics indicate, and only 6 percent saying it is better. Seven percent of respondents say the economy is strong, while 33 percent say it is weak, with the remainder saying it is mixed.

When asked for the growth prospects for key measures of economic activity over the next three years, the largest increases are expected to be in interest rates, inflation, and the budget deficit. U.S. output and jobs are expected to increase, but with about half the intensity of growth in global output. The respondents say the prospects for the entrepreneurial economy in the United States are grim as well. The panel assesses conditions as “bad” or “very bad” for small business (52 percent) and bank lending to business (51 percent) and individuals (50 percent). The outlook for entrepreneurs is a relative bright spot, with opinions mixed between bad conditions (36 percent) and good (26 percent).

Survey Results: The Kauffman Economic Outlook includes core questions that will recur each quarter and one-time-only topical questions. Core questions focus on two areas, and are presented in the charts and tables below: the performance of the U.S. economy and policy assessments and recommendations. The third section displays questions for the topic in focus this quarter, which is “The U.S. Budget Deficit.” Finally, there are topical questions provided by economics bloggers themselves, which are not categorized.

Keywords: bloggers, economic, economy, policy, survey