Mitigating Procyclicality in Basel II: A Value at Risk Based Remedy

25 Pages Posted: 17 Nov 2013

Date Written: 2002

Abstract

A side-effect of the better differentiation of credit risk in the New Basel Capital Accord is the danger of a sharp rise of capital requirements in recessions due to a large number of borrower downgrades and defaults. Thus, the Accord may worsen recessions. In the present paper these worries about Basel II are analyzed in some detail. A “historical simulation” is calculated with S&P’s transition and default rates from 1982 to 2000. In accordance with the literature it turns out that procyclicality may be substantial - at least due to an increasing number of defaults in recessions. A solution is suggested which “buffers” the cyclicality effect by considering simple Value-at-Risk calculations. Its main advantage is the transparent reflection of a bank’s actual risk and the retention of risk sensitive weights - an essential goal of Basel II.

Keywords: Basel II, Procyclicality, Credit Risk, Bank Regulation, Capital Requirements

Suggested Citation

Roesch, Daniel, Mitigating Procyclicality in Basel II: A Value at Risk Based Remedy (2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2354879 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2354879

Daniel Roesch (Contact Author)

University of Regensburg ( email )

Chair of Statistics and Risk Management
Faculty of Business, Economics and BIS
Regensburg, 93040
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www-risk.ur.de/

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