On the Relativity of Quantitative Model Results for Policy Purposes in the Social Sciences

Abstract

This paper discusses the potential sources of misinterpretation of quantitative model results by policy makers. It is argued that model results are relative, in other words, the correct interpretation of the results depends on (1a) the policy maker for whom the model was meant for as a decision support system - as well as - (1b) whether the model is meant to be descriptive or prescriptive, and (2), in case of stochastic parameters in the model, whether it is the actors or the policy maker that experience uncertainty.

It is concluded that the chance of misinterpretation can be reduced if the model developer explicitly describes key characteristics of the policy maker the model results are meant for. Examples of potential misinterpretation of model results are given for the field of greenhouse gas emission control.

Keywords: climate change, decision criterium, environmental policy, modeling, uncertainty

JEL Classification: D78, D83, Q28