Estimation and Performance Evaluation of Optimal Hedge Ratios in the Carbo Market of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme

Abstract

Following the introduction of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), CO2 emissions have become a tradable commodity. As a regulated party, emitters are forced to take into account the additional cost of carbon emissions in their production costs structure. Given the high volatility in the carbon price, the importance of price risk management becomes unquestionable. This study is the first attempt that has been made to calculate hedge ratios and to investigate their hedging effectiveness in the EU-ETS carbon market by applying conventional, recently developed estimation models. These hedge ratios are then compared with those derived for other markets. In spite of the uniqueness and novelty of the carbon market, the results of the study are consistent with those found in other markets – that the hedge ratio is in the range of 0.5-1.0 and is still best estimated by simple regression models.

Keywords: carbon market, CO2, conditional hedge ratio, hedging, emissions trading, risk management