The Relative Weights of Direct and Indirect Experiences in the Formation of Environmental Risk Beliefs

Abstract

Environmental risk beliefs may be governed more by direct experiences than by indirect experiences derived from outcomes experienced by others. This emphasis could have a rational basis or could be based on behavioral rationales in terms of the well-established Availability Heuristic or the Vested-Interest Heuristic, which we introduce in this paper. Using original data from a large, nationally representative sample, this article examines the perception and responses to morbidity risks from tap water. Direct experiences have a stronger and more consistent effect on different measures of risk belief. Direct experiences also boost the precautionary response of drinking bottled water, while indirect experiences do not. These results are consistent with the hypothesized neglect of indirect experiences in other risk contexts, such as climate change.

Keywords: risk beliefs, experience, perception, tap water

JEL Classification: D80, Q53, I12, K32