Climate Simulators and Climate Projections

Posted: 7 Mar 2014

See all articles by Jonathan Rougier

Jonathan Rougier

University of Bristol - Department of Mathematics

Michael Goldstein

Durham University

Date Written: January 2014

Abstract

We provide a statistical interpretation of current practice in climate modeling. In this review, we define weather and climate, clarify the relationship between simulator output and simulator climate, distinguish between a climate simulator and a statistical climate model, provide a statistical interpretation of the ubiquitous practice of anomaly correction along with a substantial generalization (the best-parameter approach), and interpret simulator/data comparisons as posterior predictive checking, including a simple adjustment to allow for double counting. We also discuss statistical approaches to simulator tuning, assessing parametric uncertainty, and responding to unrealistic outputs. We finish with a more general discussion of larger themes.

Suggested Citation

Rougier, Jonathan and Goldstein, Michael, Climate Simulators and Climate Projections (January 2014). Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 103-123, 2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2405897 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115652

Jonathan Rougier (Contact Author)

University of Bristol - Department of Mathematics ( email )

Bristol, BS8 1TW
United Kingdom

Michael Goldstein

Durham University ( email )

Old Elvet
Mill Hill Lane
Durham, Durham DH1 3HP
United Kingdom

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