Resource Boom or Resource Curse Without Sovereignty? The Prospects for Oil-Led Development and Democracy in Somaliland

Abstract

Despite its respect for colonial borders, its five previous days of recognized sovereign statehood in 1960, and its impressive achievements in democratization and the provision of security, the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland has remained entirely unrecognized by the international community since it declared its independence from Somalia in 1991. We know there are oil deposits in Somaliland. Live oil was seen seeping from the ground outside Berbera in the 1950s and Conoco, Chevron and Phillips all explored concessions in what is now Somaliland in the 1980s. What is not yet clear is whether or not Somaliland has commercially viable oil reserves. This papers explores the prospects for oil-led development in Somaliland, examines the various constraints that a lack of sovereign recognition places on this development and critically interrogates the government s claim that oil provides a viable route to Somaliland s ultimate recognition. Theoretically, it tests different arguments (Ross 2001, Jensen and Wantchekon 2004, Smith 2007, Eubank 2011) on the effects that oil wealth may or may not have on the consolidation of democracy and political accountability in Somaliland. It concludes that oil is unlikely to be either Somaliland s savior as its proponents hope or its ruin as some critics fear.