Nowcasting UK GDP Growth

11 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2014

See all articles by Venetia Bell

Venetia Bell

Bank of England

Lai Wah Co

Bank of England

Sophie Stone

Bank of England

Gavin Wallis

Bank of England

Date Written: March 14, 2014

Abstract

Official estimates of UK GDP growth are published with a lag, but other data and statistical models provide an early indication of GDP growth. This article describes the approaches taken by Bank staff to produce early estimates (‘nowcasts’) of GDP growth, ahead of the publication of official estimates. Although the confidence bands around the Bank staff’s nowcasts can be large, these estimates have tended to be more accurate than those from a simple statistical model.

Suggested Citation

Bell, Venetia and Co, Lai Wah and Stone, Sophie and Wallis, Gavin, Nowcasting UK GDP Growth (March 14, 2014). Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2416251

Venetia Bell (Contact Author)

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Lai Wah Co

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Sophie Stone

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Gavin Wallis

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

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