Can Dreams Come True? Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa by 2030

25 Pages Posted: 26 Apr 2014

See all articles by Mthuli Ncube

Mthuli Ncube

BARBICAN Asset Management; London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group

Zuzana Brixiova

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department; African Development Bank

Zorobabel Bicaba

African Development Bank

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 24, 2014

Abstract

With the year 2015 – the MDG finishing line – approaching, post-2015 goals as they impact Africa need to be firmed. The goal of ending extreme poverty remains paramount. Globally, the World Bank set goals to end extreme poverty by 2030 and to promote shared prosperity in every society. We examine feasibility of these objectives for Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest but rapidly rising region. We find that under plausible assumptions on consumption growth and redistribution, eliminating poverty by 2030 is out of the region’s reach. Even under our ‘best case’ scenario of accelerated growth and redistribution from the richest 10 percent to the poorest 40 percent of the population, the poverty rate would still be around 10 percent in 2030. A more realistic goal for the region would be reducing poverty by a range from half to two thirds. At this rate, especially if in part achieved by lowering inequality, the Africa region would meaningfully contribute to the global agenda. Policies need to focus on mutually reinforcing objectives of making growth stronger, resilient to shocks, and inclusive.

Keywords: poverty reduction, inequality, inclusive growth, Africa, numerical simulations

JEL Classification: I32, E21, J11, C63

Suggested Citation

Ncube, Mthuli and Brixiova, Zuzana and Bicaba, Zorobabel, Can Dreams Come True? Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa by 2030 (April 24, 2014). William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 1076, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2428835 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2428835

Mthuli Ncube

BARBICAN Asset Management ( email )

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
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Zuzana Brixiova (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
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African Development Bank ( email )

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Zorobabel Bicaba

African Development Bank ( email )

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