A Theory of Partisan Sorting and Geographic Polarization: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
43 Pages Posted: 6 May 2014
Date Written: March 31, 2014
Abstract
Do partisans sort? If so, why? I address both questions in this paper by developing the Migration-Assimilation-Polarization (MAP) theory of partisan sorting which is tested using Hurricane Katrina migration to Houston, Texas as a natural experiment. According to the MAP Theory, conservative flight induced by changes in diversity provides a mechanism for partisan sorting which can at least partially account for trends in geographic polarization. Using a variety of empirical tools including synthetic controls, I demonstrate that Hurricane Katrina migration led to increases in conservative white flight and geographic polarization between Houston and surrounding counties.
Keywords: polarization, partisan sorting, geographic polarization, synthetic controls, Hurricane Katrina, race
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